The Profit Nomad
The Profit Nomad has one mission: to help you make profitable investments.
Here’s how I’ll do it:
Make you a smarter investor
Empower you with knowledge and insights on key investment trends
Provide actionable buy/sell investment recommendations
There’s always a profit to be made somewhere…my job is to guide you there.
The Profit Nomad is a multi-strategy investment newsletter built to equip investors with the tools and know-how to prosper in any market environment.
Different market conditions call for different tactics. If I had to sum up my investment approach in one mantra it would be this:
Trending markets are for trading, volatile markets are for value hunting.
If this seems counterintuitive to you, good. I want you to start thinking differently.
In short, there are times to invest like a tactical trader in momentum stocks and there are times to embrace your inner Warren Buffet and go bargain hunting. The Profit Nomad is your market compass designed to guide you towards profits in any market.
Together we’ll explore a wide-range of investments, discover the best profit opportunities and prosper with easy to implement investment strategies.
Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, The Profit Nomad is built for anyone to capitalize on my independent market analysis and actionable insights backed by over 17-years of professional investing and trading experience.
Jump Ahead to Learn About:
My Investment Strategy
Simply put, my strategy is to buy cheap stocks with strong tailwinds.
Cheap is a relative term. The value investor’s goal is to buy low and sell high, while momentum traders search for breakout stocks to buy high and sell higher. Both tactics work, but there’s a time and a place for each.
Tailwinds are the underlying trends and market forces that propel an investment higher.
They can be megatrends like the artificial intelligence revolution, which is poised to disrupt every business on the planet. Or it could be a structural supply deficit in a critical commodity with an inevitable inflection point that will trigger the next market bubble.
For value investors, the best time to invest in an emerging trend is during the Stealth Phase of the market cycle. That’s when the smart money is buying…long before the mainstream media catches wind.
Momentum traders thrive in the transition from the Awareness Phase, when institutional money is getting involved, to the Mania Phase, when animal spirits are awakened and assets become inflated bubbles.
Value and momentum investment opportunities can co-exist too.
A great example of this are the high-flying AI stocks that a momentum trader can feast on, while the fundamentally cheap energy stocks fueling these AI companies are an ideal setup for a value investor.
My unbiased research in The Profit Nomad will help you diversify your portfolio across market sectors, asset classes and investment strategies.
The Profit Nomad’s Momentum Investing Edge
When markets are trending higher, we want to buy the best companies leading the strongest market sectors higher.
Fundamentals are important, but focusing on traditional valuation metrics like P/E ratios won’t help you buy market leaders. Technical analysis will.
If you want to earn above-average returns, you need to have an edge.
That’s why I developed my own proprietary technical indicator, the Momentum Stock Technical Analysis Ranking (MoSTAR), and created my own custom AI stock indices to help uncover market leading stocks in one the biggest investment trends for the foreseeable future.
The MoSTAR indicator is a powerful tool that provides a composite score between 0-100 based on a weighted-average of eight different technical indicators. This narrows down my list of 250+ AI stocks to the strongest performing stocks relative to its peers.
Historically, AI stocks with a MoSTAR above 70 outperformed their peers, in some back tests by 86% on average over an 18-month period.
Admittedly, this is based on a small sample size of back testing. The AI Revolution only hit its inflection point a few years ago when the first version of ChatGPT was released in November 2022.
Nearly 20% of the AI stocks I track IPO’d after 2020. That’s a testament to how we’re still in the early stages of the AI revolution. This is one of the biggest megatrends of our lifetimes, which should extend the secular bull market for years to come.
US stocks have been in a secular bull market since 2009, but there’s still a lot of life left in this run.
The last secular bull market lasted 23 years with a 17X increase in the S&P 500, which was capped off by the internet boom of the late 1990s.
The AI revolution is an even bigger trend than the internet and it’s just getting started. It could make the Dot-com bubble look tame by comparison.
We’ll capitalize on this trend using my proprietary tool MoSTAR to generate a short list of AI stocks to analyze further until the trade setup is right.
The key to successful trend trading is risk-management. When trending stocks stop trending, we cut our losses quick and move on to the next one.
The Profit Nomad PRO includes actionable recommendations that strike a healthy risk vs. reward balance so we can make the trend our friend with:
Momentum Trades: These are trend trading investments using technical analysis to identify market leading stocks with strong tailwinds. These trades will have pre-defined price targets and tight stop-loss points to manage risk and maximize profits.
Our momentum trades will typically have an expected timeframe of 6-18 months. In other words, this isn’t a day trading strategy.
The Profit Nomad’s Value Investing Edge
The best time to buy your favorite value stocks is when CNBC is running its “markets in turmoil” specials. As the famed market technician Walter Deemer says, “When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to.”
We’ll always be hunting for good value stocks in The Profit Nomad PRO with a shopping list ready to go when the next bout of volatility inevitably occurs.
That said, we don’t exclusively wait for market turmoil either. Value investing is all about embracing our inner Warren Buffet. When stocks go on sale, we go shopping.
Our value investing edge in The Profit Nomad PRO is contrarian thinking and disciplined execution. We take advantage of market mispricing due to the unrealized, the uncertain and the unloved in order to earn excess returns.
The Unrealized
“You have to turn over a lot of rocks to find those little anomalies. You have to find the companies that are off the map – way off the map…No one will tell you about these businesses. You have to find them.” ~Warren Buffet
Warren Buffet is wrong.
The Profit Nomad PRO prioritizes telling you about the best “off the map” businesses to invest in.
Spotting trends early is important. I take a “top-down” approach guided by things like macro data, market cycles, geopolitics, fiscal and monetary policy, demographics and technological trends.
Once I’ve identified an emerging market trend, my next step is finding ways to profit.
I take a deep-dive into the sector with a “bottom up” approach to my due-diligence. I turn over all the rocks to find companies with the strongest fundamentals that are best positioned to reap the rewards from the unfolding trend.
You work hard to earn money. I do the heavy lifting to make your money work hard for you.
The Uncertain
“Face up to two unpleasant facts: the future is never clear and you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.” ~Warren Buffet
Whenever there is a strong consensus view more often than not the opposite will happen. Market forecasts are rarely correct and even less so right for the right reasons.
There are no sure things in investing. The best way to deal with this uncertainty is to think in terms of probabilities.
Understanding that there are many possible outcomes (not one certain future) helps investors identify risks, spot opportunities, and make better decisions to tilt the odds in their favor. It also prepares us for dealing with unexpected changes.
As a contrarian value investor, I do meticulous analysis to come up with a company’s “fair value.”
But if you’ve worked with financial models as much as I have, then you realize how easy it is to manipulate the numbers to fit a certain narrative. The more variables at play the easier it is to massage the numbers.
My approach focuses more on getting the big picture right, rather than building a complex model that attempts to project every aspect of a business 10+ years in the future.
Don’t get me wrong. I dig into the weeds of the company’s financials looking for red and green flags. But I prefer to keep my models simple and stay conservative in my assumptions.
I want to see a strong balance sheet that can weather any storm, consistent sales growth, sustainable cash flows and profit margins or a viable path to profitability for the more speculative investments.
The goal is to come up with a solid ballpark valuation that serves as a guidepost. We can then use this conservative valuation to buy fundamentally cheap stocks trading at a significant discount and selling when they become overvalued.
The Unloved
“Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist” ~Warren Buffet
The efficient market theory, which says that all the available information is already reflected in a stock’s price, is a fallacy. It assumes investors always make rational decisions.
In reality, markets are heavily influenced by psychology and emotion. Investor sentiment causes markets to fluctuate between extremes of optimism (FOMO buying) and pessimism (indiscriminate selling).
These extremes create opportunities for disciplined investors who can resist herd mentality and act counter to the prevailing crowd psychology.
This involves recognizing and resisting the emotional cycles of greed and fear that cloud investors judgements. Instead, I let the fundamentals dictate my actions.
There’s nothing I like more than buying a fundamentally strong company in an unloved sector with strong tailwinds.
Execution
Uncovering the biggest investment trends is the fun part.
Digging into the best ways to profit is the hard part. (Fortunately, I thoroughly enjoy this or else I wouldn’t be doing this.)
Execution is the most important part.
My discovery process seeks out emerging trends with strong tailwinds, but it’s impossible to predict when an inflection point will occur.
I don’t pretend to have a crystal ball to predict the future. In fact, the catalyst that causes a market cycle to transition from the stealth phase to mania is rarely an expected event.
My investing style doesn’t require having a crystal ball.
I concentrate on buying cheap, fundamentally strong companies that can survive in any phase of a market cycle.
That said, when you’re investing ahead of the crowd there’s not always an easy way to play an emerging trend. Sometimes, we need to be a little more adventurous to discover good under the radar profit opportunities.
The Profit Nomad PRO Value Stocks portfolio will revolve around two types of investment buckets:
Anchor Investments: These tend to be more stable, longer-term value investments that provide a solid foundation for the portfolio, but can require more patience. An inflection point is more likely to occur in the 1- to 3-year time frame.
Adventure Trades: These tend to be more speculative value investments that have the potential for higher returns but come with increased risk. An inflection point is more likely to occur in the 6- to 12-month time frame.
The investment recommendations in this newsletter will be a balance between these two value stock buckets and the Momentum Trades.
(Important Sidenote: How these investments could fit into an individual’s overall investment strategy is beyond the scope of this newsletter. I strongly recommend that you work with a professional financial advisor. See Legal Disclaimer and Disclosure page for more details.)
My strategy for executing both of the value investment buckets is the same. It involves two simple risk-management tools:
Tranches: Buying (and selling) a stock in multiple tranches (or “portions”) is a way to end up with a lower average buy price (higher average sell price). Recommendations will typically include guidance such as, “buy one-third of your planned allocated amount to invest for XYZ stock” or “Sell half of your total position in XZY stock.”
Free-Rides: Taking a “free-ride” on an investment is the perfect tool to limit risks without capping profit potential. The idea is to take some chips off the table when we’re sitting on a healthy gain. If you sell enough shares to recoup all the initial investment, then only your profits are at-risk with the remaining shares you still own.
These straightforward risk-management tools are the best ways to earn above-average returns. They should also help keep you from losing sleep at night.
Who is The Profit Nomad?
My name is Jake Weber. I founded The Profit Nomad in 2024 after working 17-years as an investment analyst and trader covering a wide variety of market sectors and investing strategies.
Rather than focusing on one niche, as I had done for most of my career, I wanted to create a unique multi-strategy product that can thrive in any market environment.
The Profit Nomad name is meant to reflect two of my greatest passions in life: investing and travel.
“The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking. Don’t settle.” – Steve Jobs
I’m fortunate to have stumbled into work at the start of my career that I absolutely love to do.
Thanks to a serendipitous introduction from my professor, Dr. Walter Block, to the renowned investor, Doug Casey, I got my start analyzing and writing about markets professionally while I was finishing up my economics degree at Loyola University New Orleans in 2007.
After graduation, I moved to Vermont to work at Casey Research, where I served as the lead investment analyst for several products, including the Big Gold (precious metals mining stocks), The International Man (foreign stocks) and The Casey Report (macro investing strategies). I also led the team for an options trading advisory service that mostly traded commodity and currency options.
The options product gave me the taste for trading. So, I went to work as a Treasury bond trader at a proprietary high-frequency trading firm in Chicago. It was a thrilling job where I learned tons about how markets actually function and how to effectively manage risk, but in the end, day-trading wasn’t worth the stress.
Then I joined John Mauldin’s team at Mauldin Economics, where I started out writing a portfolio hedging newsletter mostly focused on shorting stocks and I assisted on a dividend stock investing newsletter. But most of my seven years with Mauldin Economics was spent as the lead editor and stock analyst of a biotech investment newsletter.
I’ve covered a lot of different market sectors and strategies in my career. I’ve also been nomadic in life. I’ve lived in eight states across the US and now Puerto Rico is my home.
For over three years leading up to the pandemic I was a “digital nomad” living out of a suitcase full-time. I’ve traveled to 48 countries and counting.
Most of my time is spent studying the markets, but I live for the next stamp in my passport. Nothing can replace the perspectives gained from experiencing new places and cultures first-hand.
The Profit Nomad name is a throwback to my former nomadic days, although I still travel frequently. It’s also a reflection of my sector agnostic investment style that thrives on the belief that there’s always a profit to be made somewhere…my job is to guide you there.
The ChatpGPT definition of a nomad sums it up well:
Nomads do not have a permanent home and their lifestyle is typically characterized by mobility and adaptability. Traits associated with a nomad:
Adaptable
Resourceful
Independent
Explorative
Resilient
Flexible
Self-Sufficient
Adventurous
Curious
Versatile
Those are the traits of a good traveler and a good investor. Profits are the goal of every investment and these nomadic traits are what you can expect from the investment research I provide in The Profit Nomad.
What you can expect from your subscription?
The Profit Nomad is a reader-supported investment research publication. To support my work, consider becoming a free subscriber or upgrading to a PRO subscriber…
Free subscribers gain access to periodic insights into markets, macro trends and the forces shaping the financial markets. Free previews will also be made available on certain paywalled posts.
(Important Sidenote: I’m currently making all of my content publicly available during the launch phase of The Profit Nomad. I’ll eventually add a paywall.)
Upgrading to a Profit Nomad PRO subscription unlocks access to all my content, including:
Monthly in-depth market research and investment analysis that’s easy enough for anyone to read and thoughtful enough for the most experienced investor to appreciate
Actionable buy/sell investment recommendations with clearly written guidance
Weekly market commentary and analysis with updates on current portfolio positions
